by ezs | May 10, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – new look for the regular Seattle Times infographic on the state of Covid cases in Washington State. Some good data here on vaccination rates.
India variant still continues to raise concerns; UK NHS flagging this as a major issue and risk to re-opening.
Friday – Washington State delayed further restrictions; with the anticipation that the vaccinations would cause the positive cases to plateau and fall. It looks like that is happening. Gov Inslee looks at potential lifting of restrictions by end of June – that’s just six weeks away.
King County health data:
Thursday – the boy had his first Pfizer jab. Counting the weeks to a fully vaccinated household. CDC announces major change for those fully vaccinated: “Fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance.” Now it’s a gamble of “who is vaccinated, who is not” because both groups will be maskless :\ India variant B.1.617.2 could be escaping.
Wednesday – warm weather here; and it’s as if COVID never happened. Folk out and about. We need a push to incentivize the many who have not been vaccinated to get theirs.
Tuesday – India variant “critical global risk” – I’m still expecting an escape variant that is untouched by the current vaccines. That would be incredibly disruptive.
Monday – Pfizer vaccine soon to be approved for 12-15 year olds. That’s really going to make school in September viable – especially for middle school upwards. India continues to ride the wave of cases.
This time last year – US entering the second wave. Exams, work, politics.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | May 3, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – much grumbling about opening up vs. case rates in Washington State. Vaccination rates slowing in the US.
Still large positive rates across Washington State; again data from The Seattle Times.
Friday – “COVID never going away” from Prof Chris Whitty “In the long term, I do expect that this will become a much milder, chronic disease overall”
Thursday – US vaccine patent waivers should help with vaccine production globally. New Moderna vaccine tested to protect against variants. The mRNA route looks like science fiction; but could be a rapid way of getting variant specific vaccines out of the door.
Wednesday – new goal of getting 70% of US adults with at least one shot by July 4th. Very clear that there will be lingering Covid-like infection in the US for the foreseeable future. Annual shots along with flu.
Tuesday – a pause on rolling back to Phase 2 (i.e. more restricted opening) – with a two week wait to watch numbers.
Is this a real downward trend? From King County Health Indicators.
Monday – looking back to last year. This was week 9 of working from home – and the routine was pretty established. The news items seem familiar too – early re-opening, increased cases. I wrote early about the “Hammer and The Dance” – and it was so insightful. We are in that “ongoing” phase. New York Times: “there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Apr 26, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – The tale of rich vs poor. US and UK having a significant program for immunisation and re-opening; vs India and Brazil.
Washington State numbers tell two stories; of vaccines in arms and re-opening, and a fourth wave of new infections hitting younger people. The infection rate, cases per day and death rate are all above last fall.
Friday – WA pushing hard to over come “vaccine reluctance”, especially in more red counties. Very clear male/female divide too.
Thursday – “Indian variant” B1617 detected in the UK. This is the massive risk; a new variant emerges in India, Russia, another country with huge numbers of cases – and that is the “perfect virus” – virulent, deadly and not touched by the current vaccines
Wednesday – King County, WA (home of Seattle) is almost certain to slide back into Phase 2 restrictions. More cases, less compliance. I’ve been flagging this for a month plus. This is looking very much like November 2020; with younger folk getting sick.
Tuesday – Headlines are about India. Oxygen, hospitals, hundreds and hundreds of cases. Variants, election season and mass events over the past month have built up to this.
Monday – another week of commentary; and we roll over into May. Seattle Times paywall again. This time last year I did a coronavirus antibodies test to see if I was exposed in early 2020. Negative. Also this time last year 65k deaths in the US – and NY was getting overwhelmed. Early discussions about “return to the office”. Looking back – so naive.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Apr 19, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – the never ending grim news from India. Oxygen shortages, oxygen being moved from steel plants to hospitals, dead and dying, overwhelmed and collapsing healthcare. Over half of UK population have had first vaccination. Real concern about runaway Covid in India; and the risk of the “one variant” that escapes and starts this all over again.
Usual weekly from The Seattle Times. Lots of positive cases; more than Summer 2020; positive test rate is right up too. Lots still to do here.
Friday – Today the Seattle Times was not paywalled. Interesting read on the Brazil variant running through Latin America; and the India variants. Japan cases surge; Olympics at risk again. Left – Global daily cases are galloping towards 1M per day, Right – the India case numbers are heartbreaking – “a wall”. From JHU. This also from the BBC in Indian healthcare crisis following these cases.
Thursday – 314K cases today in India. New variant BV-1 in Texas. Washington State in wave 4.
Wednesday – India – not a wave, a wall of cases. My second Pfizer shot. The beginning of the end? I hope so; I expect annual shots just like the flu. US meets 200M shots in 100 days. Phenomenal.
Tuesday – The Seattle Times seems to have reverted back to the paywall for Covid news. I’ll see if this is few days or a more permanent change.
Monday – daughter back at High School for the first in-person classes since last March. Social distancing, one-way traffic, masks required, half of the numbers. It is a start back to normalcy. Fauci calls out Republican vaccine deniers as hurting efforts to lift restrictions. Turkey, India have huge case numbers.
This time last year – tide pods, bleach injections, general idiocy. We did a roadtrip to buy our first 50lb bag of flour.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Apr 12, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – A globe of rich vs poor. In-person events like the FA Cup Semi Final, soccer and baseball games in the UK and the US; in India, Brazil and other areas record breaking new cases. Washington State numbers are steadily climbing; Gov Inslee calling this “wave 4”.
Data again from the weekend Seattle Times.
Friday – “Pandemic fatigue” is the zeitgeist – and as a result cases are surging.
Thursday – more reporting on the politics behind vaccines. Red vs Blue states. Voting history being a strong correlation to intent to vaccinate.
Wednesday – J&J and AstraZeneca tests being stopped or delayed. Increasing positive tests globally – UK, France, India, US; here in Washington State I am sure this is another wave slowly breaking. If so – it’s going to be another summer of restrictions. Graph from The Seattle Times.
Tuesday – six blood clot cases from millions of doses; yet the J&J vaccine is being delayed. Two WA counties are moved back to Phase 2 of reopening; King County was close to being pushed backed.
Monday – UK reduces lockdown. Long queues for shops, bars, haircuts. WHO: Pandemic “a long way from over”.
This time last year was “week 6” – and at work we were discussion what return to work would look like. Ran my first Zoom meeting with online voting for 5th LD Dems. “Reopen America” was trending.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Apr 5, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – India, Iran, Brazil are the next breaking wave.
This time last year the UK was in the midst of a major wave – with NHS staff bearing the brunt of a lack of PPE, space and resources. Boris was in ICU. School was also “out until September” and it was almost a month working from home.
P1 variant (Brazil) is running rife through Whistler, BC and now beyond. Good list of variants here. I’m still thinking an annual Covid booster to go along with flu.
B1.1.7 – aka UK variant – 74% more transmissible; 64% more virulent
P1 – eek/E484k and others – 152% more transmissible; 45% more virulent
Clearly a rising rate of positive tests in Washington State. Some shocking disparity in vaccination rates – that seem to align with voting intent.
Friday – Delays to J&J vaccine shipping. J&J now under investigation for platelet/clotting issues. UCL claims UK heading for herd immunity; disputed.
Thursday – more restrictions on AstraZeneca vaccine. WHO warn of fourth wave in the UK; even with massive vaccine drive.
Wednesday – after weeks of bad press and the UK pushing forward with vaccinations – the UK regulator says “no AstraZeneca vaccine for under 30s“. Meanwhile the entire vaccine supply chain is running well in the US – City of Seattle alone will deliver >30k doses this week. Biden calls for “all adults to be offered the vaccine by 19 April” – that’s testament to the manufacturing, distribution and last mile working well.
Tuesday – France, Canada clearly in another major wave. Multiple locations flagging the E484K “eek” variant as being especially virulent and evasive. That’s the Brazil/South Africa variant.
Monday – more AstraZeneca woes – this time the UK is considering not using it for under 30s because of the blood clotting risks. UK lifting more lockdown; certainly the numbers are lowering quickly. US news – wave 4 is certainly here. “The United States has entered a fourth wave of transmission, and there’s no disputing this. Whether it remains as small regional outbreaks, or whether it generalizes nationwide remains to be seen,” Dr. George Rutherford, a UC San Francisco epidemiologist, said Friday at a campus town hall meeting.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Mar 29, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – continued reports that Covid is spreading faster than vaccines can be administered; meanwhile it’s spring break – and there are just too many folk travelling and not wearing masks. 60k+ cases per day in the US still. In King County, WA “If cases continues to climb over the next week or two, the county may return to the more-limited Phase 2 of the reopening plan”.
The US daily cases graph from JHU (see below) certainly seems like the start of another uptick. Canada describing a third wave (the first two are really “the first”). “As variants spread, Covid is killing faster and younger,” said Dr Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of Ontario’s Covid-19 science advisory table.
US gets 4M+ vaccines in a day; average of over 3M per day for the week. Very good news. Almost half of the UK has had one shot of a vaccine.
Here The Seattle Times has the weekly update. Certainly a clear uptick in positive cases in the State. I have zero confidence that this will be contained; it’s going to be another wave, another lockdown.
Friday – much discussion on “coronavirus passports”, privacy, technology and inclusion.
Thursday – AstraZenaca still in the news; bloodclots, halted for under 60s in the Netherlands. France, Belgium, Germany continue to fight through a new massive wave. Variants are more transmissible.
Wednesday – Pfizer vaccine for me. Thousands of people getting vaccinated in Seattle.
Tuesday – Back to Western Europe for rising cases. Netherlands, France, Germany still fighting with variants and rising numbers.
Monday – my first vaccination scheduled for Wednesday; that will make both adults in the house having had one shot. Two shots done by end of April. Meanwhile US wide cases are rising; WA cases are rising; Brazil and much of Europe is in the midst of another wave. I don’t see any of the restrictions being really removed until 2022. WHO origins of COVID report is going to stir up some more politics.
US cases – from JHU – is that the start of a fourth wave across the country?
I suspect that, after a year, The Seattle Times daily updates are back behind the paywall.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Mar 22, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – clear signs and reporting of another wave. Brazil is still a tragedy; US is racing to immunize; half the population seem to be out and about.
Weekly summary of Washington State cases from The Seattle Times. That positive rate picking up; and the number of cases still being around 1000 per day is really sad. Nowhere close to being done with this.
For the first time; The Seattle Times daily COVID news is “below the fold” on the website.
Friday – a story of multiple parts. Declining cases in the US and UK; another wave building in Europe. Is the US about to follow? Certainly looking at the rates there’s a lot of folk without masks, spring break, kids back at school, more virulent variants running wild. April will be interesting – have 200M vaccinations beaten the spread? I hope so.
Thursday – EU vaccine production and distribution woes. What should have been a triumph of the commons is coming unraveled quickly.
Wednesday – the story of vaccine chasers – I have colleagues who did exactly this; showed up at end of day and got vaccinated.
Tuesday – AstraZeneca in the news again; blood clots; approvals; export restrictions.
Monday – the tragedy of timing continues. Looks like a major wave is about to break over most of Europe; looking at the rates in the US I think there will be regional waves too. Germany looking at closing all stores; Poland talking about closing churches. New variants are more virulent and affect younger people. Lockdown fatigue – and here in Washington State we may be seeing a similar up-tick. Time will tell.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Mar 17, 2021 | evilzenscientist
You can tell where I’ve been working by the Kusto queries against Azure Resource Graph that I leave behind.
All Azure VNets and subnets, with subnet details:
// get all Azure VNETS and SUBNETS with associated subnets
resources
| join kind=leftouter (ResourceContainers | where type==’microsoft.resources/subscriptions’ | project SubName=name, subscriptionId) on subscriptionId
| where type == “microsoft.network/virtualnetworks”
| mv-expand subs=properties.subnets
| extend subnetname = subs.name
| extend subnetprefix= subs.properties.addressPrefix
| extend vnetprefix = substring(tostring(properties.addressSpace.addressPrefixes),2,strlen(tostring(properties.addressSpace.addressPrefixes))-4)
| project SubName, resourceGroup, name, vnetprefix, subnetname, subnetprefix
| sort by SubName, resourceGroup asc, name
This one for pulling back network security groups and metadata (this was originally at Thomas Balkeståhl’s blog) – tidied up:
Resources
| where type =~ “microsoft.network/networksecuritygroups”
| join kind=leftouter (ResourceContainers | where type==’microsoft.resources/subscriptions’ | project SubName=name, subscriptionId) on subscriptionId
| mv-expand rules=properties.securityRules
| extend direction = tostring(rules.properties.direction)
| extend priority = toint(rules.properties.priority)
| extend description = rules.properties.description
| extend destprefix = rules.properties.destinationAddressPrefix
| extend destport = rules.properties.destinationPortRange
| extend sourceprefix = rules.properties.sourceAddressPrefix
| extend sourceport = rules.properties.sourcePortRange
| extend subnet_name = split((split(tostring(properties.subnets), ‘/’))[10], ‘”‘)[0]
| project SubName, resourceGroup, subnet_name, name, direction, priority, destprefix, destport, sourceprefix, sourceport, description
| sort by SubName, resourceGroup asc, name, direction asc, priority asc
by ezs | Mar 16, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – Italy, Germany, France all picking up for another wave. I think this goes back to the earliest days (a year ago!) – the hammer and the dance. This is going to be the Spring story – racing to produce, ship and deliver vaccines across the globe; and getting enough people immunised.
Casing surging across Europe. JHU/The Guardian graphic.
Washington State weekly recap from The Seattle Times. Positive tests have ticked back up.
Friday – The “people we know who have been vaccinated” list keeps growing. Friends, family, colleagues. All positive. 100M shots in 58 days; weeks ahead of schedule. On the downside – positive cases are picking up; lots of B117 variant in the US – and it’s spreading just as states open up too early. It’s a race to vaccinate “most” before the next wave comes through.
Thursday – vaccine manufacturing shortages. Hoarding/export bans for vaccine.
Wednesday – Looking back at last year; and there was absolute panic: blueprints for ventilators being sent to industry, closing borders, exams being cancelled, schools closing.
Tuesday – AstraZeneca vaccine “safe”, another wave of infections in France.
Monday – The blog rolls around. Officially more than a year of weekly synopsis.
A reminder of “this time last year” and the panic buying:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
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