by ezs | Jul 13, 2020 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – the usual look at the ever more bleak numbers. This does feel like a slow roll to millions of deaths in the US.
US daily cases; via JHU. Surely on the path to 100k per day by month end. Lack of strong policy on mask wearing, distancing and healthcare will make this become a reality. This is WA, NY, NJ played out large four months later.
The Seattle Times- rolling average new cases is now way higher than March/April – so the Governor is having to roll back reopening. I’m planning for no school, no in-office work until at least the new year.
Friday – UK looks at “significant normality by Christmas”, US has record 77.3k new cases, GA Gov v Atlanta major legal action over masks. Restrictions returning to WA state as cases continue to creep upwards; more new cases now than back in March/April.
Thursday – WA DOH changing the counting mechanism again. Back to school is going to be a real issue, really soon. Health, safety, funding – and possible labour cuts (no buses, no schools – what to do with bus drivers and custodians?). What is a hybrid model? K-2 in school?
Wednesday – Fauci is an honourable man. Work from home until 2021 is likely.
Tuesday – masks required in UK shops. WA COVID death reporting via the state is broken again. Lockdown returns around the world. Second wave? Continued first wave? Unknown what September brings for return to school – quarantining teachers on every positive case amongst pupils would remove the workforce within a week.
Monday – back in March I had thoughts that this would be through the spring; looking at Wuhan and Italy, then New York, then New Zealand – it seemed like the coronavirus could be contained and a planful return to work sometime in the summer.
Where we are today, in both WA state and across the US, is anything but contained. Local hotspots in Yakima County, national runaway cases across many, many states who opened early.
Without national leadership, and some selfless actions to distance, wear masks and quarantine – the US is going to be isolated and work from home for another six months minimum.
by ezs | Jun 8, 2020 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – Second wave stories everywhere – US states, Beijing, UK.
UK death rate slowing quickly. Latin America growth; Brazil as epicenter.
Seattle Times data for the week.
Friday – UK GDP shrank by 20% in April. Lots of discussion about the steps needed to “be in the office” to get a task done – VP approval, limited ingress and egress routes, security notification, masks required.
Thursday – the news cycle slowly pivots back to coronavirus. US at more than 2 million positive cases. Contact tracing not working well in the UK – third of positive cases missed.
Wednesday – UK needs planning for return to school in September. Work is looking at “next year” for return.
Another reminder on searching for specific day coronavirus coverage:
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mmm/dd/coronavirus
BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world and “As it happened”
Tuesday – Somehow my post from this day got deleted – rewrite time. Lots of examples of “early reopening” causing a huge uptick in positive coronavirus cases.
Arizona:
Monday – yes, this is week 14. We will be at day 100.
As we approach the end of the school year (in the Northern hemisphere at least) – eyes are looking forward to school and university return. Still unknown what any of that really looks like.
Good news: Berlin, Paris, Dublin reopening. UK reports lowest coronavirus death toll since 22 March.
Bad news: More reports of moving average positive cases ticking up across multiple US states.
It looks like The Seattle Times have stopped with their live local updates page for coronavirus. I’m not surprised – the massive protests across Seattle have drained their newsroom.
Local and global coverage for future reference.
by ezs | May 4, 2020 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – it’s been weeks since I tracked the WA coronavirus numbers – mainly because there are great websites tracking the data, secondarily because the data reporting and metrics were so broken in early/mid-April.
Here’s the current (9 May) numbers from The Seattle Times. Curve of reported cases peaked in early April, about 10 days later for the reported death rate. The baseline is still quite high. I hope the weekend (sunny, warm, lifted restrictions, Mothers’ Day) doesn’t lead to an explosion of new cases in 2 weeks time.
Friday – 75th anniversary of VE Day, muted celebrations in UK. Coronavirus positive tests in White House staff.
Thursday – WA State is slowly opening back up. Traffic is increasing. Almost 15% unemployment rate in the US. Truly staggering.
Wednesday – another long day. Work, calls, lunch, calls, dinner, running Zoom call for the local Dems. Looks like online meetings are going to be a thing throughout the summer at least.
Tuesday – 250k deaths globally. US is arguing around models, lockdown and what next. French re-testing shows a positive COVID-19 test in late December.
Monday – I added the weeks. This is Week 9 of working from home, social distancing and isolation.
The daily routine is pretty similar for the work week; get up, coffee, breakfast, talk to the kids. They do school work (Teams, writing, exam prep) and I work in my office. I run a daily team stand up at 0930 daily which is informal scrum-like: what did you do last, what are you doing today, what do you need help on. Communications is a tad scattered with email, Skype for Business (yes, old), Slack and TFS/ADO comments. I’ve been trying to do informal “tune of the day” in a non-work, social Slack channel for about 8 weeks. Friday afternoon is voluntary team Happy Hour, turn up in Slack with video and a beverage.
I’ve noted that the informal drive-by questions have all turned into 30 minute calls. It’s back-to-back calls most days – so there’s some discipline needed to block out time.
Local and global coverage for future reference.
by ezs | Apr 14, 2020 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – good reporting from The Seattle Times and ProPublica around the Seattle Sounders game in early March that I decided not to attend. Coronavirus spiking in Yakima and other Eastern WA locations.
Friday – the week went quickly. I didn’t write daily notes. Sixth week of working from home. Lots of graphs plotting the rate of new cases around the globe – this peak seems to be over in many locations. Much discussion at work about what return to work could look like. My best guess is to reduce density there’s going to need to be at least A/B cohorts; and keep them together (i.e A is Mon/Tue, B is Wed/Thu, Fri work from home) so you don’t cross contaminate groups.
BBC News has a horrible search; also searching for “yesterdays live coverage” is really hard.
Thursday – heavy pollen triggering massive allergies for some. Industrial food has caused some hotspots in meat processing plants. There’s a potential shortage of meat coming.
Wednesday – Trump de-funds WHO. 15% funding lost on a pique. 2 million global cases of coronavirus. WA state positive tests peaked on 28 March.
Ran a Zoom meeting for 5th LD Dems with online voting to confirm endorsements. More folk online than would come to a regular meeting. Maybe this is how we run meetings in the future?
Tuesday – “Reopen America” is trending
Monday – I have to admit – the work week (and to an extent the weekends) are becoming somewhat of a blur. This week should be Spring Break; normally we would have headed away for a few days. Instead everyone is at home.
Kids are into the routine of school in the morning, doing something creative and constructive in the afternoon. Today they made dinner and baked challah bread.
Trump press briefing is just trash.
Local and global coverage for future reference.
by ezs | Mar 26, 2020 | evilzenscientist
Sunday – Fauci predicts 100-200k deaths in US. WA DOH moved to PowerBI – looks to be developed by Microsoft IT – which is nice.
Saturday – “Best case, 20k deaths” in UK. 50% survival in ICU however. Closed borders, Brexit – no one to pick fruit and veg. Military field hospitals being built in Seattle.
Will need to head out for groceries later. Ended up travelling to Vashon Island to get car license plates done. Empty ferry and curbside pickup for food.
Friday – Boris has the COVID19. Took the car in to the dealership. Was told a story of “police checkpoints” in Issaquah. Mailed the mayor – it’s obviously complete BS. US at 97k cases and skyrocketing. 969 deaths today in Italy. $2T stimulus coming.
Thursday – the scale of pandemic in the US is becoming clear. Visually seeing the spread, county by county is chilling. NY state has 31k cases, 285 deaths. There is no PPE. 3.3 million file unemployment.
WA DOH finally got test data out for today. Gaps in total tests for Tue/Wed – which doesn’t help the trend analysis.
ExCeL exhibition center in London being fitted out as a 4000 bed hospital “NHS Hospital Nightingale” – NEC next. Tomorrow is three weeks of enforced working from home. NHS tributes are moving.
Wednesday – Prince Charles tests positive. Home testing kits for the UK. JHU dashboard! 100k cases in two days (compare below with above). $2T stimulus passing.
Tuesday – JHU dashboard jumped from ~365k to over ~415k. The global growth is huge; most from the US. NYC is hot. Work from home/school from home is settling into a rhythm. Up on time, breakfast, work/study, lunch, freetime for the kids. Having lunch together is really helping as a keystone of the day. WA DOH data missing the negative test data again.
Monday – @wsdot_traffic updated the message boards on the major highways. Traffic is exceptionally light. Watching the unfolding NYC horror.
The JHU dashboard looks to have an update – showing US counties now. Also looks to have removed the China/ROW from the confirmed/increase charts. US spread is explosive – major metro areas, small outbreaks following the interstates. New cases at >30k per day now. Italy new cases rate is dropping. South Korea new cases lowest in weeks.
It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases of Covid-19, but it took only 11 days for the second 100,000 cases, and just four days for the third 100,000 cases, WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said.
UK FCO calls for Britons to return home – there may not be commercial flights within “days”. UK now in enforced lockdown.
Local and global coverage for future reference.
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