by ezs | Jul 12, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – One day, probably before the end of summer, I’ll be writing about the variant that escaped, and the scramble to get a new vaccine to fight the new variant. Biden: “Look, the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated.” In relatively vaccinated King County (>74% of 12+ fully vaccinated, >85% locally) there are pockets of low vaccination rates; that align almost perfectly with voting outcomes. In Seattle and the Eastside; it’s almost back to “normal”. Compare to areas of the south where it’s closer to 30% and raging cases.
Summary of COVID vaccination among King County residents – King County
More UK U turns on PM isolation.
Weekly snapshot of data from The Seattle Times. Note the slight uptick in new cases :\
Friday – my fears in a Guardian article. “England Covid unlocking is a threat to the world“
Thursday – 48,553 new delta variant cases in the UK. This is like late December. Hospitalisations and deaths are lagging; but because of vaccinations are at a lower rate than last year. Washington State finally reaches 70% of adults having one or more vaccine doses. US – Canada border may re-open for travel in mid-August.
Wednesday – Multiple locations returning to curfew and lockdown.
Tuesday – “Freedom Day” in the UK in a week; and an “Exit Wave”. Bold and daring; or incredibly short sighted and risky…
Monday – UK reopening full of confusion, mixed messaging and backtracking. Euro finals “devastating” for COVID transmission. Ramping cases, warnings of 1000 hospitalisations per day, 200 deaths per day. Great data on cases, admissions and deaths.
This time last year – UK predicting a “significant normality by Christmas” (it wasn’t). Restrictions returned to WA state. Work from home until 2021. Return to school in September up in the air.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Jul 4, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – Much discussion over England soccer games and being super-spreader events. Good Twitter thread from Andy Slavitt https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1413929409380110337?s=20 – “2021 is the year of the unvaccinated pandemic” – in developing nations, and in unvaccinated states.
Usual graph from The Seattle Times. Vaccinations are slowing. Cases are declining slowly.
Friday – “Worst over” for some says WHO. Discussion on third Pfizer/Moderna shot as a booster in the fall. NSW/Sydney lockdown continues.
Thursday – UK re-opens; vaccine take up for those unvaccinated (mainly under 30s) slows. 4MM deaths globally. Tokyo Olympics to be without fans.
Wednesday – I feel this is going to be the summer of “super spreader” events; especially in the states with lower vaccine numbers. Here’s a starter: 125 infected at a church camp in TX. UK reopening a “dangerous experiment” – daily cases looking a lot like December. Graph from The Guardian.
Tuesday – “2M UK cases, 10M in isolation” – on these numbers I’ll be commenting on Covid for years. “About 99.2% of recent COVID-19 deaths in the United States involved unvaccinated people.” Fauci. 
Monday – UK lifting mask and distancing requirements – most rules to end by 19 July.
This time last year – runaway transmission, US cases were trending up; TX, AZ, FL hospitals overflowing; US gave notice to exit WHO.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Jun 28, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – More huge case loads across Asia. Vietnam, Indonesia called out. Australia in lockdown. New Zealand carefully watching. Russia has five days of case spikes. UK warns of “variant factory” if restrictions are lifted too soon.
Weekend data from The Seattle Times.
Friday – While the US is reopening; the rest of the globe continues to suffer. Europe, South Africa, Australia.
Thursday – Interesting feedback from Europe – Pfizer or Moderna being recommended as follow on dose to the AstraZeneca for maximum protection.
Wednesday – second meeting in the office; everyone was vaccinated and we agreed to be distant but without masks. In person for these planning meetings is more productive. Washington State officially “reopened”. Mask requirements are “not coming back” – with >70% vaccinated in King County and >80% locally this might be a good call, except for the case of an exceptionally virulent variant that breaks out. State numbers are lower with only 50% of residents (60% of adults) vaccinated. UK clearly on the rising side of a fourth wave, driven by the delta variant.
Tuesday – digging into the variants again. Iota is the latest that is a potential breakout. Meanwhile King County, WA drops the mask mandate and the State is due to lift all restrictions tomorrow. Meanwhile the UK is running hot with Delta variant – and looking a lot like October 2020.
Monday – clearly the emergence of breakout variants is going to be the next concern; reports that >80% vaccination is needed to prevent escape.
This time last year – “too much virus in the US” and Dr Fauci predicted 100K cases per day. Start of the anti-science and anti-vaccine reporting. The cancellation of July 4th events.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Jun 13, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – Thinking about when to stop the daily notes in this blog. Obvious re-opening all across the area; outside of the US – there are still waves of covid and folk needing vaccines.
Weekly update from The Seattle Times. Cases for the entire state are trending downwards, slowly but surely.
Friday – Neighbours came round for a glass of wine; all vaccinated, no masks. With King County at >70% vaccinated, and Issaquah at >80% – the old routines are returning.
Thursday – Wales pauses re-opening. Those numbers in the UK look like another wave.
Wednesday – UK reporting the start of a Delta variant wave. Washington State concerns about the Gamma variant (previously known as Brazil variant).
Tuesday – UW reporting Delta variant present and “really concerning” in Washington State. King County in Washington State reaches 70% vaccination rate; mask requirements to be retired in two weeks.
Monday – UK grand reopening pushed back by four weeks.
This time last year – “a quarter of the year” working from home.. Lots of discussion about re-opening, and second waves.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
by ezs | Jun 6, 2021 | evilzenscientist
Weekend – that UK case number is ticking up quickly. 7 Million in the UK are in higher risk, lower vaccinated areas. Graph from The Guardian.
PHE report Delta Variant is 60% more transmissible and is the dominant variant. “Although there is some regional variation, PHE experts now believe that Delta (VOC-21APR-02) has overtaken Alpha (VOC-20DEC-01) as the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the UK.” and “The data indicates that over 90% of new COVID-19 cases in the UK are now the Delta variant, which continues to show a significantly higher rate of growth compared to the Alpha variant.” and “New research from PHE suggests that the Delta variant is associated with an approximately 60% increased risk of household transmission compared to the Alpha variant.”
Locally – vaccines administered still above 20k per day. Seattle, King County looking good for vaccination rate.
Friday – High School graduation for the eldest – and to an all-vaccinated section at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Vaccination records and negative tests being inspected. Another small step back to normalcy.
Thursday – UK “grand reopening” on 21 June looks to be pushed out following increased numbers of positive cases.
Wednesday – WHO warns of Autumn resurgence of COVID. Two US cruise passengers test positive for COVID, on first trip out for a year.
Tuesday – Portugal and Greece opening up to vaccinated US tourists.
Monday – Issaquah and surrounding areas such as Bellevue, Mercer Island and Sammamish are showing >70% of the population are fully vaccinated. Data from Summary of COVID vaccination among King County residents – King County The more rural areas around us – less so. It’s starting to reach levels where normal activity is starting back up. Today pool swimming for the first time in over 15 months. Felt good. On the worrying side – Delta Variant is causing concern in England. If it takes hold in the US – that would be a massive step backwards.
This time last year – day 100; re-opening; early signs of the end of the first wave and the start of a second.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live
https://www.seattletimes.com/tag/coronavirus/
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